股东会前巴菲特受访全集：伯克希尔处于“换挡”期（中英文实录）

美东时间4月30日，雅虎财经继续更新雅虎财经总编辑安迪·塞尔沃（Andy Serwer）于3月10日专访巴菲特的视频内容。《红周刊》进行了文字整理，期待能帮助到读者朋友。

内容摘要：

富国银行正经历很多企业都会经历的过程，作为企业负责人发现错误要及时、高效的解决。

超低利率甚至负利率不会让我感到害怕，但会让我感到困惑。

未来伯克希尔会有几十亿或者难以准确计数的资金将用于投资疫苗或者教育行业。

找到一个合适的CEO并为其可能发生的事情做好准备是董事会的最终责任。

每天做能让自己开心的事情能够对“健康长寿”起到很大作用。

不会投资特斯拉，让电动车替代燃油车可能会阻碍经济发展。

蒂姆·库克非常耐心地花了几个小时，试图把我（使用手机的水平）提升到两岁孩童的平均水平，但我没能成功。

FAANG公司，除了Netflix需要资金其他都不需要大量资本投入，我不认为它们股价出现了明显的泡沫。

以下为此次专访实录及中文编译：

ANDY SERWER： Hello, everyone. I'm Andy Serwer. Welcome to “Influencers”and welcome to our very special guest, Warren Buffett, Chairman andCEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren, nice to see you.

安迪·塞尔沃： 大家好， 我是安迪·塞尔沃。欢迎来到《领袖》，欢迎我们的特邀嘉宾，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。沃伦，很高兴见到你。

WARREN BUFFETT： Good to see you.

沃伦·巴菲特： 很高兴见到你。

3月份以来的美股暴跌

没有2008年或1987年那么糟糕

ANDY SERWER: So it's March 10, and it's the day after the stockmarket crash. The Dow was down over 2000 points. Oil cratered to $30 a barrelor so. The 10-year bond went to below 0.5%. What the heck is going on, WarrenBuffett?

安迪·塞尔沃： 今天是3月10日，股市崩盘的第二天，道琼斯指数下跌超过2000点，油价跌至每桶30美元左右，10年期国债跌至0.5%以下，到底发生了什么，沃伦·巴菲特？

WARREN BUFFETT: I told you many years ago, if you stickaround long enough, you'll see everything in markets. And it may have taken meto 89 years of age to throw this one into the experience. But markets, if youhave to be open second by second, they react to news in a big time way. It'snot like the market for real estate or farms or things of that sort.

沃伦·巴菲特: 很多年前我就告诉过你，如果你在市场上呆的时间足够长，您什么事情都会遇到。但如今这个场面也是我活了89岁第一次遇到。但市场就是如此，新闻每时每刻都在影响着股价，而且市场对新闻的反应很大。我的意思是，它不像房地产或农场之类的市场。

ANDY SERWER: Does this remind you of any other time?

安迪·塞尔沃： 这次暴跌有没有让您想起以往哪些经历？

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I've certainly been a fair number of timeswhen panic has reigned in Wall Street. And October 19, 1987 and the periodaround it,there was panic at the close of business on Monday, October 19, mostof the specialist firms, which were important in those days on the New YorkStock Exchange, were broke. And the next morning, there was a check to theclearinghouse in Chicago that didn't get there.

沃伦·巴菲特： 我在华尔街确实经历过很多次这种类似的情形。1987年10月19日“黑色星期一”，出现了恐慌，大多数当时在纽约证券交易所很重要的专业公司都破产了。第二天早上，给到芝加哥清算所的支票都没有完成。

And sometime late in the morning,a decision, I think made thedecision, we're going to stay open. But it was really close. That was, and, ofcourse, the financial panic. There were, you had 35 million people on September1 that weren't worried at all about their money market accounts. On September15 or 16, they were all.

在早上晚些时候，（交易所做了）一个决定：我们将继续开市。但它真的很接近金融恐慌。另外还有（一次），有3500万人在9月1日还根本不担心他们的货币市场账户，到了9月15日-16日，（账户资金）全部消失了。

疫情不会阻止美国或世界的进步

ANDY SERWER: How concerned are you about the coronavirus situation,Warren?

安迪·塞尔沃： 沃伦，你是否会担心新冠肺炎病毒？

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you've got to defer to the doctors onthat. But you get an all these figures about flu regularly kills 20 times asmany people in this country as, or 40 times maybe as much as we've seen in theway of deaths, even more than that. But it is a pandemic. It is really spread.So we've got something that we don't know how long it will be with us. We don'tknow how severe it'll be. But there will be uncertainty about that for aconsiderable period of time. There has to be.

沃伦·巴菲特： 这方面必须听医生的意见。我们从以往数据中可以看到，流感病毒导致的死亡率是国家正常死亡率的20倍甚至40倍，甚至更多。但这是一种流行病，它符合我们对流行病的定义。但现在没有人知道它将持续多久，或者蔓延扩散的规模有多大。但在相当长的一段时间内，这方面仍将存在不确定性。

ANDY SERWER: What precautions are you taking personally?Have you changed any of your habits?

安迪·塞尔沃： 您个人采取了什么预防措施了吗？或者为此改变了自己的哪些习惯？

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I'm drinking a little more Coca-Colaactually. Seems to have warded off everything else in life.I'm 89. I just hadtwo different doctors tell me how I'm in much better shape than I was a fewyears ago. I'm not sure what I'm doing to get better. But by accident, I had anannual heart check where I wear something around my waist for a couple days.The guy said it's never been better. So I really, I'm the probabilities guy inmy nature. So I, there's going to be to 2.8 million deaths this year. At age89, I'm a little more likely than I was in that group.

沃伦·巴菲特： 实际上，我（只是）多喝了一点可口可乐。这似乎可以避免生活中的一切问题。我已经89岁了，我只是需要不同的医生告诉我，我现在的身体状况好多了。我不确定如何来让身体更健康，但出乎意料的是，我在每年的心脏检查中，那段时间我需要把一些仪器在我的腰上挂几天。体检数据显示，我的身体从来没有这么好过。我是天生的概率论者。今年将有280万人死亡。在89岁的时候，我比以前更有可能（属于这类人）了。

But 2.8 million, what we had so far,it will grow. But I've alwaysfelt a pandemic would happen in some time. I've actually used that term indescribing things that can interrupt the progress of not only this country, butthe world. It won't stop the progress of the country or the world.this is aterrible event that's occurring. We don't know how terrible. It may not turnout to be that big a deal when we get through, but it may turn out to be a verybig deal, and we just don't know. And I certainly don't know. And nobody knows.

但是280万死亡人数是目前的，它还会增长。但我总觉得大流行病迟早会发生。我确实用过这个词来描述那些不仅会阻碍这个国家进步，而且会阻碍整个世界进步的事情。但（此次疫情）它不会阻止国家或世界的进步。我的意思是，这是一个正在发生的可怕的事件。但我们不知道它有多可怕。当我们度过难关的时候，它可能就不会变成一件大事，但它存在变成一件大事的可能，只是我们还不知道而已。我当然不知道，而且也没人知道。

But there will be other things that happen in the world in thenext five, 10, 20 years. That's the way the world works. It's not a totallyeven course. The progress of mankind has been incredible. And that won't stop. Youflew out here yesterday or today and you flew over a country that 250 yearsago, there wasn't anything here. That's only three of my lifetimes. And therewasn't anything here. And now you've got all these beautiful farms and you'vegot 260 million vehicles in the country. And you've got 80 million owneroccupied homes and and you've got 155 million or whatever it is million peopleworking.It's incredible.

但在未来5年，10年，20年，世界上还会发生其他事情。世界就是这样运转的。这并不是一个完全公平的过程。人类的进步是不可思议的，人们进步的步伐不会停止。我的意思是，你昨天或今天飞到这里，你飞到一个250年前这里什么都没有的国家。在我祖上三辈的时候，这里什么都没有。现在这里有这么多漂亮的农场，全国有2亿6千万辆车。8000万人拥有自己的房屋，1.55亿人在工作。这太不可思议了。

When I had a medical check the other day, I went to incrediblemedical facilities that are just two or three minutes from here. And thatwasn't here-- wasn't even here 100 years ago. So we keep making progress.

你知道，那天我做了一次体检，我去了离这里只有两三分钟路程的医疗机构。250前年这里肯定是没有的，甚至100年前也是没有的。所以我们一直在进步。

We haven't forgotten howto make progress in this country. And we haven't lost interest in makingprogress. And that will benefit to varying degrees, all kinds of people equallyaround the world. But there will be interruptions. And I don't know when theywill occur, and I don't know how deep they will occur. I do know they willoccur from time to time. And I also know all that we'll come out better on theother end.

我们没有忘记这个国家是如何取得进步的，我们依然对取得进步兴趣高涨，这将在不同程度上对全世界所有人都有好处。但也会有中断，尽管我不知道这种情况什么时候会到来，我也不知道会发展到什么程度，我只知道这种情况会不时发生。我也知道，如果我们发展进程不被打断，一切都会更好。

富国银行正经历很多企业都会经历的过程

作为企业负责人发现错误要及时、高效的解决

ANDY SERWER: And then what about the banks? And they have been hitawfully hard.

安迪·塞尔沃： 你对银行怎么看？它们（股价）受到了严重的打击。

WARREN BUFFETT: They got hammered. Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特： 是的，它们（银行）遭受了重创。

ANDY SERWER: Because of rates and exposure to the energysector. Right?

安迪·塞尔沃： 因为利率和能源部门的风险敞口。对吧?

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And you don't know what other exposurethere is.The credit standards have been pretty darn good. And the quality ofwhat's on the books has been terrific, and the liquidity, and all of that. Thebanks are in a whole different situation than they were during the-- 10 or 11years ago. But there was-- you don't know the dominos that topple when airlinesget bad. And then that affects energy demand, because they're just-- they'reusing less fuel than they were three weeks ago.

沃伦